Rafael Approaches: Cuba on Alert for Potential Hurricane Impact
Tropical Storm Rafael, which threatens to become a hurricane, is approaching western Cuba, prompting Civil Defense to declare the Cyclonic Alert Phase in five provinces and the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud. Formed on Monday, November 4, Rafael has sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts and a minimum pressure of 996 hectoPascals.
At midnight, the storm’s center was located 155 kilometers south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 790 kilometers southeast of Isla de la Juventud, tracking north-northwest at a speed of 19 kilometers per hour.
Alerts and Preparations: Havana and Western Cuba on High Alert
The Cuban Meteorological Institute (Insmet) projects that Rafael will make landfall on Wednesday, although its effects could start to be felt as early as Tuesday in the southern parts of the country’s eastern and central regions. The provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Havana, and Matanzas, along with Isla de la Juventud, are under a Cyclonic Alert Phase, while the rest of the country is in an Information Phase, implementing precautionary measures.
Preparations Underway to Protect the Population and Secure Resources
President Miguel Díaz-Canel has emphasized the importance of working proactively and in an organized manner to safeguard people and property. Local authorities have suspended classes in high-risk areas and are carrying out preventive evacuations in vulnerable zones. On Isla de la Juventud, three evacuation centers have been set up to shelter residents in flood-prone areas. In Pinar del Río, one of the most hurricane-prone provinces, approximately 18,000 people identified as vulnerable have been relocated to the homes of family or friends.
Measures to protect the agricultural sector have also been put in place, aiming to safeguard crops ready for harvest and secure food and merchandise stored in commercial outlets. The Ministry of Transport has suspended interprovincial bus departures and train services starting Tuesday as a precautionary measure.
Convergence with a Trough Complicates the Weather Scenario
Rafael’s path coincides with a trough that has been generating rain in the eastern provinces, creating a complex meteorological scenario, particularly in areas recently impacted by Hurricane Oscar. According to Insmet, rain and thunderstorms are expected in the eastern and central regions, with the potential for these conditions to intensify and reach western Cuba.
Economic and Social Impact on an Already Fragile Economy
The potential passage of Rafael poses an additional challenge to the Cuban economy, already weakened by a structural crisis. Expected damages could include impacts on agricultural infrastructure and further deterioration of the housing stock. This situation is made more complex by the coinciding International FIHAV 2024 Trade Fair, a crucial event for the Cuban economy aimed at attracting new investments. The Caribbean cyclone season has been intense, with forecasts indicating up to 20 tropical storms, of which at least 11 could develop into hurricanes.
