Trump Wins: What Could This Mean for Cuba?
The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2024 promises a significant shift in the relationship between the United States and Cuba. His return to a hardline policy toward the island anticipates potential changes in sanctions, the economy, remittances, travel, and diplomacy. In this article, we explore how this victory might affect Cuba.
Toughening of Economic and Political Sanctions Against Cuba
Trump’s victory could mean an intensification of sanctions against Cuba, following a similar line to his first term. This return to restrictive policies would likely impact Cuban state-owned enterprises and deter foreign investment. The consequences would be devastating for Cuba’s economy, limiting its chances of recovery in an already fragile context.
Restrictions on Travel from the U.S. and Its Effects on Cuban Tourism
One of the most vulnerable sectors under a new Trump administration would be tourism, which could face severe restrictions on American travel to the island. During his previous administration, these limitations significantly reduced permissions for cultural and educational travel, impacting revenues for both state-owned hotels and private Cuban businesses. A return to these measures would directly affect thousands of workers who rely on tourism for their livelihood.
Reduction or Suspension of Remittances: A Blow to Cuban Families
Remittances are a vital source of income for many Cuban families, and Trump could restrict them once again. During his previous term, he imposed limits on money transfers from the United States to Cuba, exacerbating the island’s economic hardships. Reimplementing these restrictions would make it harder to access essential goods, affecting the daily lives of thousands of Cubans who depend on foreign currency to cover basic needs.
Cuba on the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism
Cuba was re-designated as a state sponsor of terrorism in 2021, a decision made in the final days of the Trump administration. While the Biden administration has made some gestures toward Cuba, it did not remove this designation. With Trump back in power, it is likely that Cuba would remain on this list, complicating its access to international financial markets and diplomatic relations.
Slim Prospects for Dialogue and Emphasis on Regime Change
Trump’s policy toward Cuba would likely maintain a stance of direct confrontation, minimizing opportunities for bilateral dialogue. In his previous term, he took a pressure-driven approach on human rights issues, suggesting regime change on the island. This stance would increase diplomatic tensions, making any attempt at rapprochement between the two countries more difficult.
Consequences for the Cuban Economy and the Population’s Well-being
The isolationist policy toward Cuba would severely impact its economy. Restrictions on remittances and tourism, coupled with limitations on trade alliances, would reduce the population’s access to basic goods and health services. This situation, coupled with the current economic difficulties, could trigger an even deeper crisis, affecting the quality of life for Cubans.
Pressure on Cuba’s Allies and International Isolation
Trump would likely renew efforts to diplomatically isolate Cuba, pressuring its allies to limit their relations with the island. This would affect Cuba’s attempts to improve its international relationships and access to trade agreements. Trump’s pressure strategy could result in further isolation for Cuba on the global stage.
Elimination of the Humanitarian Parole Program: Uncertainty for Cuban Migrants
Trump has expressed his intention to eliminate the “humanitarian parole” program, which currently allows up to 30,000 people per month to enter from countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti. The elimination of this program would leave current Cuban beneficiaries vulnerable and restrict future migrants’ access to asylum in the United States, complicating safe migration options for Cuban citizens.
